Search results for "Scenario analysis"
showing 10 items of 36 documents
Système distribué d'alerte de la qualité de l'eau pour la rivière Mudan basé sur l'EFDC et les SIG
2016
Simulation and Early Warning System (SEWS) is a powerful tool for river water quality monitoring. Mudan River, an important river in northeastern cold regions of China, can run out of China into Russia. Thus, the water quality of Mudan River is highly concerned not only locally andregionally but also internationally. Objective of this study is to establish an excellent SEWS of water quality so that the spatio-temporal distribution of water quality in both open-water and ice-covered periods can be accurately simulated and visualized to understand the spatial variation of pollutants along the river course. The dissertation is structured into 7 chapters, chapter 1 outlines the background of th…
Modeling software integration scenarios for telecommunications operations software vendors
2007
- Telecom operators deploy a vast number of software systems to support their operations. Vendors of these systems often integrate such software in their products in order to enable innovations, minimize the customer's integration efforts, etc. Different integration scenarios can be envisioned, and the issue of identifying more beneficial scenarios is of a great importance to the vendors. This paper focuses on analyzing different integration scenarios in the context of telecommunications operations software. For each scenario, the overall modularity of the set of software systems is evaluated, and the expected benefits of the scenario are modeled in terms of the modularity gain it provides.…
Economic Aspects in the Treatment of Schizophrenia in Italy: Cost Consequences of an Early Long-acting Injectable Anti-Psychotics (lais) Approach
2017
PurposeThe aim of this analysis was to evaluate the economic consequences of a new treatment approach in the treatment of schizophrenia in the Italian setting. In terms of direct costs, in Italy was estimated that the main driver were represented by hospitalization and residential cost (71% of total direct cost per patient), followed by semi-residential services (13%), anti-psychotic and other drugs (8%) and ambulatory services (8).MethodsA probabilistic cost consequence model was developed to estimate the potential cost reductions derived from an early treatment with atypical long-acting injectable anti-psychotics (aLAIs) drugs. A systematic literature review was carried out to identify di…
Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis
2020
Abstract Background Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indic…
A plant-wide wastewater treatment plant model for carbon and energy footprint: Model application and scenario analysis
2019
Abstract A new model for accounting carbon and energy footprint of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is proposed. The model quantifies direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to biological and physical processes of a WWTP. The model takes into account several innovative aspects with respect to already available literature models: i. kinetic/mass-balances; ii. nitrification as a two-step process; iii. nitrous oxide (N2O) formation during nitrification and denitrification both in dissolved and off-gas forms. A full-scale application has been performed by adopting the case study of a real WWTP. A scenario analysis was performed to quantify the influence of: composition of …
Life cycle energy and CO2 emissions analysis of food packaging: an insight into the methodology from an Italian perspective
2016
Packaging is strictly connected to environmental issues as it is a product characterised by high material consumption rate; it is often transported over long distances and has a short life. Providing environmental analysis is, therefore, urgent to identify energy and resources efficient solutions. The paper, taking advantage of a real case study, presents a life cycle-based comparative analysis among three different food packaging systems. The paper compares the life cycle of tin steel, polypropylene and glass-based packaging of an Italian preserves producer. The analysis leads to the conclusion that, for the baseline scenario, polypropylene packaging represents the greenest solution, where…
Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Scenarios in Italy
2018
Hindering global warming and achieving a more competitive, secure and sustainable energy sector are some of the most relevant goals of the 2030 Framework for climate and energy of the European Union. European countries have to identify and implement strategies for contributing to these ambitious goals. In this context, the authors carried out a scenario analysis on the Sicilian electricity mix in order to estimate the life cycle energy and environmental benefits of the increase of the use of renewable energy technologies for electricity production, and the potential contribution of Sicily in the achievement of the European energy and environmental targets. In detail, the authors identified …
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
2015
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed "conditional Debt-at-Risk". A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, multiple…
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment plants.
2020
Abstract This paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a plant-wide mathematical model for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The mathematical model assesses direct and indirect (due to the energy consumption) greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from a WWTP employing a whole-plant approach. The model includes: i) the kinetic/mass-balance based model regarding nitrogen; ii) two-step nitrification process; iii) N2O formation both during nitrification and denitrification (as dissolved and off-gas concentration). Important model factors have been selected by using the Extended-Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (FAST) global sensitivity analysis method. A scenario analysis h…
Sectoral policies as drivers of forest management and ecosystems services: A case study in Bavaria, Germany
2023
European countries have national sectoral polices to regulate and promote the provision of a wide range of forest ecosystems services (FES). However, potential incoherencies among these policies can negatively affect the efficient provision of FES. In this work, we evaluated the coherence among three national policies from Germany and their ability to effectively provide FES in the future: the Forest Strategy 2020 (FS), the National Strategy on Biological Diversity (BDS), and the German National Policy Strategy on Bioeconomy (BES). Using forest inventory data from the Federal State of Bavaria, we simulated a range of forest management options under three climate trajectories for 100 years i…